Merry Christmas!  May all your dreams come true whether or not you believe that Jesus died for your sins :)

Our Christmas is definitely lighter in terms of presents — a few nice, small, memorable items for each family member, nothing crazy big … for example, visiting family members got different Texas coffee mugs, like the classic “Keep Austin Weird” and “Honorary Texan” ones.

It seems to be a pattern … not only there’s less people at the mall, lots of people seem to be paying with cash or debit.  Personally, I don’t care that some retailers will go under and some people will lose their jobs in the retail sector.  It’s a good thing overall.

Other than this … nothing to post, really — the focus is back on the family and quality family time as opposed to some giant present “from the entire family” bough on credit.

Merry Christmas!  Stay frugal!

What’s up — I’m preparing for some major shit hit the fan economically-speaking when the second wave of mortgages slams ashore in 2009-2010 … All those “Option ARM” and “Alt A” loan chickens are about to come home to roost:

All Mortgage Re-set Dates Graph

Check out the orange Option ARM spike towards the end of 2009, which means right around early-to-mid next year they are going to finally start talking about it on TV and in papers, which means the markets will start taking the pounding in the vicinity of Obama’s Inauguration dash Cinco De Mayo.

WTF’s up with the post title, then, you might ask.  Well, if you’re like me, and you have just enough savings to float you for less than a year, you may have to know how to make stuff from scratch.  Since bread with all its carbie goodness is pretty much the cornerstone of any diet, I figured it wouldn’t hurt to learn how to bake it from scratch.  Not trying to scare you, just saying … when both spouses are out of their fancy service-sector jobs, and all they’ve got is a sack of flour … anyway.

Two dozen loaves later … I can whip up a loaf like a pro, and it doesn’t even have that nasty homemade yeastiness I attribute to every homemade loaf I’ve ever tried!  :)  I know how much y’all like pictures, so I’ll post those as soon as I bake another couple of loaves.

First of, you’ll need good yeast — get Fleischmann Active Dry Yeast in yellow packets from Wal-Mart.  I’ve tried like five different types of yeast, including the fancy natural stuff from Whole Foods, but none work as well as this stuff … it multiplies like it’s Mormon.  For flour, use any unbleached flour you like … I tried using whole wheat, but it didn’t work out for me, so I’m sticking with your regular average-joe white unbleached flour.  Also, it helps to have an over with “Warm” cycle and some sort of a form for baking.

You should be ready to rock.

STEP ONE:
Set your oven on “warm”.

STEP TWO:
Pour hot water into a large bowl for a couple of minutes, let that bowl warm up.  “Hot” means between 110 and 120 degrees, don’t get it any hotter than that.  After the bowl is warm, pour one cup of hot water into the bowl.  Pour one packet of yeast into the bowl.  Stir for a few seconds until the yeast is somewhat dissolved.  Sprinkle a little bit (like a tablespoon) of sugar into the bowl, stir.  This is food for your yeast.  Mix in one cup of flour into the yeasty-sugary water you got going.  Stir.  You’ll have a pancake batter-looking mix.  Stir for a minute until uniformal.  Don’t overstir, don’t let the mixture get cold … just stir until uniformal and proceed to

STEP THREE:
Open the oven door halfway for 2 seconds, stick your bowl with “batter” into the oven on top rack.  Shut off the oven. I don’t have an oven thermometer, but opening the door instantly drops the temp by like 20-30 degrees and brings the temp to around 80, which is where the yeast’s comfort zone is.  You have now given it food and climate, so it will start multiplying.  Leave it alone for 20 minutes.  Don’t peek into the oven, don’t open the door, don’t turn the light on, just don’t fuck with it in any way.

STEP FOUR:
While the yeast is happily growing, mix the following ingredients in another bowl: two cups of flour, 2 tablespoons of sugar, 1.5 teaspoons of salt, 1 teaspoons of baking powder, and whatever other dry ingredients you like (I add basil and paprika cause I love ‘em).  Mix all that up well — if your salt is in clumps, break it up or it will kill the yeast.

STEP FIVE:
I’m assuming you didn’t screw with your yeasty batter, and after 15 minutes in the oven it rose into a happy bubbly mess.  Get a large mixing bowl, warm it up with hot water, pat dry it, then pour two tablespoons of cooking oil into it (although I use olive oil).  Dump your batter into the mixing bowl.  With a fork, start stirring it, and as you stir, keep mixing in the flour mixture from STEP FOUR.  Work kinda fast — I mix about 2 revolutions per second.  Eventually, your mixture will start to clump up — keep mixing.  You’ll come to a point when it’s the consistency of dough, so sprinkle some flour on the countertop, and dump out your dough on it.

STEP SIX:
Set your oven on “warm”.

STEP SEVEN:
With floury hands, start kneading the dough.  Knead about 30 times until it’s somewhat consistent.  It will still be sticky, but you can combat that with dipping hands in olive oil or flour.  The dough may kinda fall apart at this point, but keep kneading it.  Eventually it will become consistent, mas o menos … don’t let it get too cold!  It must be pleasantly warm to your kneading touch … well, that sounded kinda gross.

STEP EIGHT:
Spray some Pam or other non-stick cooking spray into your baking form.  Put your kneaded dough into the form.  Open your oven door halfway for 2 seconds, stick your form with dough on top rack.  Shut off the oven. This is the same thing we did in STEP THREE — it drops the temp in the oven to about 80-ish, and yeast loves that. Let the dough rise for 15 minutes.

STEP NINE:
After not screwing with the dough for 15 minutes, pull out the dough (it should have risen a little), dump it out of the form onto a floured surface.  Set the oven on “warm” again.  Knead the dough a few minutes, don’t let it get cold.  Again, it must be warm to touch.  Ugh.  Re-spray the form, put the dough in it, stick the form into the oven, shut off the oven.

STEP TEN:
Let the dough rise for good 45 minutes.  Turn the oven light on, and peek through the glass — at this stage, my dough normally has risen to the point of climbing out of the form, creating a nice “muffin top”.  Ideally, you keep your temp around 80-85, but for me the trick with turning the oven on and off works.

STEP ELEVEN (this recipe is so awesome, it goes to eleven):
Catch your dough in the act of climbing out of the form, and crank your oven to 400.  Bake for 25-30 minutes — when in doubt, crack open the door and check out the color of the bread — should be of a nice non-burnt color.

When done baking, shake the bread out of the form and let chill for like 10 minutes … I like to cover with a towel to prevent scavengers from breaking pieces off.  Don’t eat hot bread, it will fuck your shit up … just let it cool.

Bust out some butter and salt, or like me — extra virgin olive oil, salt, and basil — slather or dip and enjoy!  The best thing of all — you’ve learned how to make something from scratch, and that’s a skill that you can’t lose!  This way, when Depression strikes in like 2010, you’ll be the baker on your block!

I’ve just read a chilling account of John Dolan’s rapid descent into poverty after finishing grad school.  He talks about poverty, staying warm, finding food, avoiding the police, and thanking Prozac for saving his and his wife’s lives.

Little did I know that when I lost everything last year, I was doing research. At the time I thought it was just stupidity or bad luck or both. But now that the economy’s crashing, it turns out I’ve been out there gathering valuable tips for millions of new paupers. And let me clarify, I’m talking real poverty. My wife and I fell through many layers of poverty in a few months. First we revisited the genteel poverty known to grad students, the sort of poverty where you have scary dreams about the rent and eat a simple, wholesome diet toward the end of the month. But we fell right through that into the sort of Dickensian privation that spoiled first-worlders like me never expected to experience.

Then I thought on it for awhile.

First off, this kind of poverty is very well known to me … so I really don’t give a shit if I have to live through it again.  I’ve been so poor once, we had to cook a meal (one dehydrated packet of soup) on a Bunsen burner from the school’s science lab while no one was watching.  My mother, an accomplished teacher, had to mop the floors of a local newspaper printing shop — a disguisting and dangerous place with lead-related (metal) poisons — on her knees, with a towel for a mop.  After each swipe the towel turned instantly black from the stove soot and lead from the Gutenberg-era presses.

Second, I am already getting ready.

USA Silver Eagle Coin

You need to buy a few of those … pure silver, gold if you have the money, and safely stash them.  If you’re even more paranoid, don’t buy the US-minted coins because they fall under eminent domain and can be confiscated at the point of a gun — it HAS happened before.  Your safest bets are pre-1933 US gold coins minted by the US Mint or foreign gold, like British Sovereigns (I like the 1/4 oz coins).

As a sidetrack … I’ve been getting mail calling me paranoid and crazy.  Frankly, I don’t understand where those people get their unshakable faith in the US Federal Reserve Notes and this consumption/service-based economy.  It’s not any kind of a secret, people, they even say it loud and clear on CNN/FOX NEWS — we are both a SERVICE economy and a CONSUMPTION-based economy.  Two thirds of our economy is driven by consumption, not production.  Therefore, in a country with fiat currency, the only thing that can possibly give that currency any intrinsic value is production and productive capacity of the people.  What happens to a consumption-based economy then there is nothing else to consume?

Just think about your position for a second, the way I thought about mine.  I’m a yuppie (young urban professional), and just like the rest of the office plankton I don’t produce anything … neither am I a value-add for anything my company produces.  Are you a doctor?  A farmer?  Do you know a trade?  If no, you, like me, are the first on the chopping block.

We have lost over half a million jobs in November alone, and the rate is accelerating.  This is telling evidence that we’re been living in a fake economy propped up by fake faith in the unshakable US dollar.

John’s story is a compelling reason to safeguard your assets and cut your spending.  It’s the opposite of what our government is doing, which is increasing spending and printing more money.  While you’re doing that, learn how to live way below your means, and pick up a skill or two in the meantime.  For instance, baking bread from scratch and sewing basic clothes is something I am working on right now.  And if I’m wrong, we’ll have a laugh about it later :)

Really, you shoud be buying gold.  But since I’m assuming an average Joe don’t got a G to throw around on gizzold … Silver is the next best thing.

You really have a couple of options.  Buy US Mint precious metals if you’re not afraid for G.I. Joe confiscating them at the point of his gun.  Buy some other form of silver if you are afraid of G.I. Joe slash Uncle Sam confiscating it when the time is ripe.

I’m taking my chances amd buying rolls of 10 US Mint Silver Dollar Eagles every paycheck.  Sometimes, when the website advertisement paychecks rolls in, I buy a bar of Swiss Gold.

You’re asking, “why?”

Couple of reasons.  First, I’ve been though currency devaluation before in the USSR.  Not very fun.  I’m talking, “run out and buy up whatever tangible durable goods you can because the paper money ain’t gonna be worth much in a day”.

Second … With the massive amounts (trillions) of dollars of money Federal Reserve is printing to cover the bailouts, I’m predicting massive inflation.

Oince Gold Bar Fine 999.9 Credit Suisse

Seriously … If I’m wrong, you’ll jack the gold and still be allright.  But if I’m right … I hope I’m not right.

Normally, I would wait for the day after Thanksgiving to purchase the big ticket items.  For example, 2 years ago I snagged a Panasonic 42″ plasma TV for around $800 AND they threw in the $300 Tweeter gift card.  Last year, I grabbed some parts for my computer dirt cheap, and some nice jewelry items for my wife.  I’d wake up early, load some tunes on my Sansa, browse through the paper ads, and chill with other thrill-seekers outside some store.

Not this year.

Even though I’ve just read about people being pronounced dead after being trampled at some Wal-Mart, or pregnant women being hospitalized under similar conditions (which tells me that people are still shopping it up regardless of the economic situation), I decided to skip the shopping extravaganzas.

First of, we have everything we need — and the stuff we thought we needed, well, we don’t.  As Peter Schiff said in one of the many YouTube clips (paraphrasing), nothing bad would happen if people didn’t buy a new car and made do with the old one, or didn’t charge that new television set and just watched their 32″ RCA for another year.  We still have nice, fairly new things, and I can’t think of anything we need.

Second, I am stockpiling cash to 1) expand the safety net 2) pay down debt 3) convert cash into silver.  I’ll elaborate — basically, after food/utilities/bills, each dollar we make gets divided into those 3 categories.  We need more cash in case both of us lose our jobs.  We need to aggressively attack our remaining debts.  We need to set aside a portion of our budget that we won’t immediately need so it can be converted into tokens with intrinsic value, i.e. precious metals.

A quick note on precious metals — there’s evidence of big players shorting gold and silver to keep the price down … I believe gold will surpass $2,000/oz within 12 months.  I’ve been incrementally buying Silver Dollar bullion coin from the US Mint, although it takes longer and longer to order and receive (crazy demand).

And finally, this Black Friday bonanza makes me feel like I’ve felt right before quitting smoking — the realization of pointlessness, harm to my body, and waste of money finally helped me quit for good … not only that, I now cringe every time I catch a whiff of someone’s cigarette and run away from it :) Same with shopping — because shopping for the sake of shopping is … sickening in its decadence.

If you’re out shopping, just be careful.  Both with your money, and with not being trampled.